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A low-key affair in Asia, UK Q3 GDP – In focus

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 27, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Japanese inflation numbers failed to spur volatility into thin markets after the US markets were closed overnight on Thanksgiving holidays. The calm was spread across the FX board; with the Asia-pac currencies wavering within Thursday’s trading range.

    Key headlines in Asia

    Japan inflation: Minor uptick in inflation, BoJ QE bets off short term?

    Japan PM Abe orders extra FY2015 budget

    China industrial profits decline for 5th straight month

    Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD

    A quiet Asian session, with markets shrugging-off slightly better Japan’s CPI figures as holiday-thinned trading prevailed. The National Core CPI y/y came in at -0.1%, matching estimates while Tokyo Core CPI y/y reflected a flat reading, ticking slightly higher from a -0.1% decline expected.

    The US dollar remained bid across the board, supported by an inevitable Fed rate hike in next few weeks. While rest of the G10 currencies traded in flat-lining, keeping Thursday’s range-play intact. However, the Canadian dollar emerged the biggest loser in Asia on the back of falling oil prices amid weak Chinese data and ongoing supply glut concerns. Chinese industrial companies fell 4.6% y/y in October. China is the world’s second largest oil consumer.

    The Asian stocks snapped previous rally and turned negative on the back of heavy losses in the Chinese indices. The mainland China’s benchmark, the Shanghai Composite drops -0.94% to 3,601 points. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng sinks over 1% to 22,249. Japan’s benchmark, the Nikkei now loses -0.29% to 19,885 while Australia’s S&P ASX index sheds -0.20% to 5,200.

    Heading into Europe & the US

    A quiet EUR calendar this Friday as we head into the next week’s ECB storm, with only a set of second-tier on the cards from the Euro zone. German import prices and Spanish CPI figures will be reported in the session ahead.

    While the main highlight for today remains the UK second estimate of Q3 GDP. Markets expect 0.5% growth in Q3 q/q after 0.7% in Q2, while annual GDP growth is expected to show a 2.3% expansion. Alongside GDP figures, prelim business investment data from the UK will be also reported.

    Absolutely a data–empty US calendar today as the US traders are away on Thanksgiving holiday and hence markets are expected to remain muted amid thin trades and low volatility.

    Analysts at ANZ noted, "An exceptionally quiet night in markets, with the US out for Thanksgiving. Tonight is likely to be the same with many in the market on leave for an extended weekend."

    EUR/USD Technicals

    Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet noted, “I the 4 hours chart shows that the bearish momentum prevailed for one more day, given that the price was unable to recover above the 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators present mild bearish slopes below their mid-lines. Given that the month end is around the corner, little can be expected for this Friday, although market's sentiment continued favoring lower lows towards 1.0460 and selling on spikes. Support levels: 1.0590 1.0550 1.0520. Resistance levels: 1.0630 1.0660 1.0695.”
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