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ADP sets positive backdrop for NFP's - FXStreet

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 4, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Valeria Bednarikstrong>>, chief analyst at FXStreet noted a positive back drop in the ADP report ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls and gives a forecasting analyses of EUR/USD.

    Key Quotes:

    "The ADP private survey released this Wednesday provided a first positive insight into the upcoming employment report as, according to it, the private sector managed to add 182,000 new jobs against market's expectations of 180K. September data, however, was revised lower, from 200K to 190K.

    Anyway and for this Friday, we are expecting the country to announce 180,000 new jobs added in October, whilst the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 5.1%. Wages, which were a huge disappointment last month, are expected to have ticked higher. Given the positive tone of the greenback in the last few weeks, an upward surprise should see the American currency rallying further, but it will take something above 220K and no downward reviews of previous readings to fuel hopes that the FED will act in December.

    That the EUR/USD pair bearish trend is quite clear, after the latest Central Banks' meeting highlighted the imbalances between the ECB and the FED, and the Nonfarm Payroll report can exacerbate the dominant trend if the readings beat expectations. Should the pair maintain the current levels ahead of the news, the critical support to follow for a longer-term breakout confirmation will be 1.0818, May 27th daily low. A weekly close below the level should open doors for a continued decline towards the 1.0650 region during the following days, whilst below this last, a retest of the year low around 1.0460 is likely. A downward surprise on the other hand can boost the pair up to 1.1000, but selling interest will likely surge on approaches to the critical psychological figure, maintaining the upside limited."

    Watch: Join Valeria Bednarik, Dale Pinkert and Mauricio Carrillo in the NFP live coverage
    For more information, read our latest forex news.

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