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All eyes on oil - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 4, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that the price of February light sweet crude oil futures has not closed above its 20-day moving average for two months (November 3), but it flirted with it at the end of last week (~$37.90).

    Key Quotes:

    "The unseasonably warm weather in most of the US, flooding in the Midwest, which jeopardizes the safety of some significant pipelines, and continued strong inventory growth (record levels in Cushing) speaks to the excess production.

    Since the last November high, the February contract fell 21% by the third week in December before consolidating into end of the year.

    Technical indicators, like the RSI and MACDs, suggest potential for continued corrective action in the days ahead. There is a trend line drawn off the early- November highs (~$50), the late-November highs (~$45), the early-December highs (~$43.40) and the late-December highs (~$38.15).

    By the end of next week it intersects near $36.30, so even continued sideways action will violate the downtrend. This coupled with the prospects of colder weather (by mid-January) could see further corrective action, though a move above $40 is needed to denote something significant from a technical perspective."
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