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Antipodeans extend China rate cut-led rally, German Ifo eyed

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 26, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) -Asia cheered China rate cut news with the risk-on rally seen in the Asian equities and rising demand for risker assets. The Antipodean currencies enjoyed gains from the persisting risk-sentiment while the USD/JPY was sold-into the USD correction after last week’s relentless rise.

    Key headlines in Asia

    CFTC: Net long USD lowest since July 2014 - ANZ

    Key events ahead - Westpac

    Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD

    Broad based US dollar weakness was the main theme in Asia as bulls took a breather from last week’s rally and corrected lower, despite the persisting upbeat sentiment on the equities. As a result, the USD/JPY pair dropped to 121 handle, having peaked at 121.50 levels – fresh seven-week highs last Friday.

    The Antipodean currencies rejoiced China rate cut inspired risk-on trades in the global equities, and therefore boosted the demand for higher yielding currencies. The Aussie keeps pushing; having tested the hourly 200-SMA located at 0.7260 and now targets 0.73 barrier. While the Kiwi also follows suit and jumps 0.48% to 0.6780, as markets have almost priced-out a rate cut at the RBNZ policy decision this week and the focus now solely remains on the FOMC statement for further momentum ahead of Tuesday’s NZ trade balance figures.

    Meanwhile the Asian indices tracked the Wall Street gains and extend the rally on easy money news from China, with the Nikkei leading its Asian counterparts higher. The Japanese benchmark rallies 0.70% to 18,961. Australia’s S&P ASX index muted at 5,350. While the Shanghai Composite index trades 0.72% higher at 3,437. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gains 0.25% to 23,210.

    Heading into Europe & the US

    There are limited risk events lined up for release in the European session ahead, with the German Ifo survey expected to remain the main highlight. While 2nd tier data in the UK’s mortgage approvals and CBI Industrial orders will be also published.

    The closely watched Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany is expected to tick down to 107.8 in October, from the 108.5 seen in Sept. The Current Assessment sub-index is seen at 113.5 from the 114.0 booked a month ago. The Ifo Expectations Index - indicating firms' projections for the next six months - is expected to edge lower to 102.3 from 103.3 recorded in September.

    Apart from the macro data, ECB board member Yves Mersch will deliver a keynote speech on “The Challenges of Innovation” at the Belgian Financial Forum in Brussels, Belgium.

    A quieter start to the week leading up to Halloween, as the US macro calendar offers only the new home sales data due to be reported later today. While markets gear up for the Fed statement due out on Wednesday as ongoing China slowdown fears and strengthening US dollar expected to remain key concerns for the FOMC members.

    EUR/USD Technicals

    Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained, “Technically, the daily chart shows that the pair is currently below its moving averages, with the 200 DMA converging with the broken trend line around 1.1120, the mentioned critical resistance, whilst the technical indicators maintain their strong bearish slopes below their mid-lines.”

    “In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have lost their bearish potential, but remain in extreme oversold readings, far from suggesting the pair may correct higher. Renewed selling interest below 1.1000, should lead to a continued decline down to 1.0920 this Monday, with the ultimate bearish target for this week at 1.0840.”
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