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Asia 2016 economic outlook: Policy tries to fill the growth gaps – Goldman Sachs

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 20, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Goldman Sachs, lists down the economic outlook of Asia for 2016.

    Key Quotes

    Policymakers under pressure to support growth…

    After disappointing economic outturns in much of the region in 2015—both relative to historic performance and relative to expectations—Asia’s economic policymakers will be under pressure in 2016 to shore up growth.

    …given only limited help from external drivers

    Navigating the economic environment in 2016 is likely to be challenging. Though demand outside the region should be a little better, exports are unlikely to drive a meaningful acceleration in growth for the larger economies. And the windfall from lower oil prices should have worked its way through the system by midyear, barring a collapse in key commodities to cash production costs. Domestically, many economies—in particular China—are still addressing the consequences of past debt buildups, and China's own "bumpy deceleration" looks set to continue, with ramifications for the rest of the region.

    Room to ease further in much of the region

    Still, policymakers have room to do more, and we think they will, especially on the fiscal side. Elections in a number of countries could provide a catalyst. Combined with selective easing in monetary policy, and the cumulative effects of currency depreciation in many of the smaller economies, we think growth will be slightly better in the region ex- China. Inflation should pick up as the effects of the past year’s commodity price slide fade out, but in most countries we expect it to remain within or below desired ranges.

    Cautious on Japan and China, still optimistic on India

    Relative to consensus and market views, we think policymakers will ease more, but still get less growth than desired, in both China and Japan. Our alternative measures of China activity have slowed significantly in recent months, highlighting downside risks. We remain relatively optimistic on growth in India—which should be able to realize a bit more of its potential growth in the coming year given recent signs of a pickup in cyclical activity and the accumulating impact of a host of smaller reforms on the business environment—and to some degree in the Philippines and Indonesia.”
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