Asia opening: week ahead and a market shorter AUD/USD

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 29, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - The week ahead is destined to be one of the busiest weeks of the year as we head into to year-end while the market is heavily long the greenback as we approach the eagerly awaited FOMC meeting where markets are pricing in a rate hike from the Fed.

    The data for the week ahead brings us Yellen's Appearances, US Non-Farm Payrolls and ECB Rates Decision as the key highlights while the RBA meeting is speculated to be a nonevent while the Central Bank chill-out until at least the Feb meeting. Another key event to keep an eye on will be the OPEC Meeting. While most Central Banks are positioned for cheap oil to stay cheap, OPEC has recently suggested that their flooding of oil markets may be reaching an end and should the price of oil make a comeback, many of the easing Banks will be put on the defensive.

    Markets today: Watch China

    For today, NZ already released building permits 5.1%vs prior -5.7% while ANZ business confidence is till to come out a little later. We also get Aussie and Japanese data to play for while China will be one to monitor in respect to the main share index that closed down by more than 5% last week as several major brokerage firms were, as announced by China's securities regulator, under investigation.

    The Shanghai Composite index finished the day 5.5% lower at 3,436.3 points at last week's close and this was marking its biggest drop since August. It was announced that China's securities regulator was investigating the country's largest brokerage, Citic Securities. In a stricter regulatory environment after Black Monday and with a crackdown on leveraged and margin trading, the firm was being probed over the possible breaking of market rules. Rival brokerage Guosen Securities is also under investigation. Subsequently, shares in both Citic and Guosen fell by 10%, the maximum allowed in one day.

    AUD/USD: market getting short again

    While the Australian dollar had been making a comeback in late Oct and again in early Nov, and, despite the market starting to unwind the carry and move over to the Greenback, it should also be noted that Chinese data continues to print badly with the most recent of that seen with government figures showing last week that industrial profits in October fell 4.6% from a year ago, being the fifth consecutive decline in profits earned by Chinese industrial companies. This added more fuel to concerns over a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy with a very slow depletion of inventory. For the Aussie traders, the price closed in bearish end to last week's trade and moved below the 100 DMA and 200 SMA on the hourly sticks.
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