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Asia risk-off in full swing on China trade data, UK CPI, ZEW - key

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 13, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The latest import data from China added to the persisting concerns over the ongoing weakness in the domestic economy and spooked markets on yet another occasion. Thus, fuelling risk-off sentiment and boosting the safe-bids for the Japanese currency while the Antipodeans were heavily sold-off.

    Key headlines in Asia

    RBA's dep governor Lowe speaking up economy

    BOJ Minutes: Inflation trend continuing to improve

    China Sept trade balance surges, exports show good momentum

    Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD

    Risk-aversion was reinforced in Asia as the weak China trade data disappointed markets once again and dented the investors’ confidence in risky assets. Amongst the safe-haven assets, the yen benefited the most, with USD/JPY dropping -0.15% to 119.80 region. The Japanese currency also remains lifted as markets re-assess the Oct 30 BOJ meeting risks and now believe that the central bank could wait for some more time before easing further. While today’s BOJ minutes release offered no new surprises and hence had negligible impact on the major.

    The Antipodeans were the worst-hit by the China trade data and reversed their long run of gains. The Aussie was the biggest loser so far in Asia, as the weak internal demand in China as highlighted by the poor
    import data, heavily weighed on both OZ economies. AUD/USD also ignored upbeat comments from RBA deputy governor Lowe and above estimates Aus business confidence data. AUD/USD now trades -0.67% lower at 0.7311. While the Kiwi drops to 0.6676, recording a -0.60% loss so far.

    Meanwhile the Asian indices halted their recent upward momentum and fell deep in the red, with the Nikkei losing the most, down -1.11% to 18,234. Australia’s S&P ASX index drops -0.67% to 5,197.60. While the Chinese markets follow suit as the Shanghai Composite index falls to 3,277, -0.30%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng drops to 22,626, losing -0.46%.

    Heading into Europe, centred on EUR, GBP

    After a dull start to the week yesterday, Tuesday’s European session holds plenty of risk events and will keep the EUR, GBP traders busy.

    German final inflation data for Sept will kick-off a data-heavy European session, with CPI seen at a negative 0.2% m/m, while remaining flat at 0.0% annually in September, confirming preliminary figures.

    Next in line is the much-awaited UK price pressures print. CPI in September is seen at 0.2%, the same as the 0.2% reported in Aug, while the annual price growth is predicted to rise to 0.2%, following the flat reading seen in August.

    Later in the session, the ZEW will release its Economic Sentiment Index for the next six months for Germany, as well as the Current Situation Index, reflecting institutional investors' opinions of the current situation.

    As per ZEW Economic sentiment is expected to drop sharply to 7.0 in October from 12.1 measured in September, while the Current Situation Index is also expected to trend down to 65.8 from 67.5 in the previous month.

    Besides, we have couple of BOE MPC members scheduled to speak in the session ahead. MPC Member Vlieghe is due to testify on his appointment before the Treasury Select Committee. While MPC Member McCafferty Speaks will also testify on his reappointment before the Treasury Select Committee.

    Looking ahead, we have yet another empty US macro-calendar and hence, markets will shift their focus towards Wednesday’s data flow from the US, which includes the key PPI and retail sales numbers.

    EUR/USD Technicals

    The AceTrader Team explains, “Although price has retreated after Friday's breach of last October's high at 1.1319 to 1.1387 on dovish FOMC minutes and further choppy trading is likely to be seen, as aforesaid move signals the recent upmove from 1.1105 has resumed, upside bias is seen for gain towards 1.1387, break would yield stronger retracement of decline from 1.1460 towards 1.1405/10.

    However, near term loss of momentum would keep price well below 1.1336 (previous support, now resistance) and yield retreat.”
    “On the downside, only below 1.1150 would confirm a temporary top has been made and turn outlook bearish for further weakness to 1.1120/25.”
    For more information, read our latest forex news.
     

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