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Asia unimpressed by upbeat China CPI, German trade data eyed

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 9, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - Risk-off sentiment extends into Asia on Wednesday, mainly due to the ongoing weakness in oil prices. As a result, the demand for safe-havens was on the rise while the risk-currencies traded in the red.

    Key headlines in Asia

    China CPI ticks higher in Nov, beats estimates

    Rise in Chinese CPI temporary due to seasonal factors?

    Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD

    A relatively eventful Asian session, with a host of mixed economic data released across the Asian regions. While Japan’s core machinery order (+10.7% versus -1.5% exp.) saw an impressive jump, Australia’s consumer sentiment data dipped sharply in the reported period. The crucial Chinese CPI data, which rose in Nov and beat estimates, failed to lift the sentiment as the NBS noted that the rise in consumer prices is seasonal in nature. The consumer prices in the world’s second largest economy ticked higher in Nov, coming in at 1.5% y/y against 1.3% booked in Oct. Markets had predicted an increase of 1.4% for Nov.

    Among the G10 currencies, yen emerged the best performer and remained underpinned amid persisting risk-aversion led by extended sell-off in the Japanese stocks. Moreover, the recent series of upbeat Japan’s data also boosted the sentiment around the yen. Japan avoided a technical recession in Q3 while the core machinery orders rose sharply higher as reflected by the latest report. Hence, USD/JPY drops -0.12% to 122.75 levels, notwithstanding 123 handle.

    The higher-yielding currencies such as the Antipodes bore the brunt of wide-spread risk-aversion, with the Aussie stalling its recovery near 20-DMA and consolidates to the downside near 0.72 handle heading into Thursday’s jobs report. While the Kiwi trades with size-able losses, despite stabilizing oil prices in Asia. The bird breached the key hourly 200-SMA support at 0.6633 and hovers below the last with further bearish potential intact. Meanwhile, markets now shift their attention to the RBNZ cash rate decision due later tonight and are pricing in around a 50% possibility of a rate cut to 2.50%.

    On the equities space, Asian indices trades mixed, with Japan’s benchmark, the Nikkei down nearly 1% at 19,324 while Australia’s S&P ASX index drops -0.40% to 5,087 towards closing hours. The mainland China’s benchmark, the Shanghai Composite rises 0.65% to 3,492, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng loses -0.51% to 21,793.

    Heading into Europe & the US


    Thin trading is expected for yet another day today, with the German trade data release likely to have negligible impact on the EUR. While the US calendar offers nothing of relevance with the 2nd tier data in the US wholesale inventories to be reported.

    Germany’s trade balance is expected to reach EUR21.8 billion, lower than the EUR22.9 billion seen in September. Both exports and imports are expected to fall, by 0.6% and 0.8% respectively.

    Apart from data, the BOE Financial Policy Committee (FPC) will publish the record of its November meeting on risks to financial stability.

    ECB Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger will speak at the 11th High-Level Meeting in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. While ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny will speak in Vienna.

    EUR/USD Technicals

    Mohammed Isah at FXTechstrategy explains, “Having taken back its Monday losses to close higher on Tuesday, EURUSD looks to resume short term uptrend triggered from the 1.0521 level. While the 1.0829/1.0796 zone continues to hold as support, the pair should build up on the mentioned short term uptrend. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.0950 levels where a violation if seen will aim at the 1.1000 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1050 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.1100 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, support resides at the 1.0850. A cut through here will open the door for more upside towards the 1.0800 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.0762 level where a break will expose the 1.0700 level.”
    For more information, read our latest forex news.
     

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