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Asian FX positioning: USD longs still increasing – BNPP

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 26, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BNP Paribas, suggests that investors have increased their long USD/Asia positioning over the past two weeks, especially in USDPHP and USDKRW.

    Key Quotes

    “We updated our Asian FX positioning indicators6 on 21 January. We highlight the key findings below:

    • On an aggregate basis, investors have continued to increase long USD/Asia positions over the past two weeks. Nevertheless, long USD/Asia positioning (at 0.99 on a scale of -3.0 to +3.0) is not yet at an extreme level, in contrast to the situation in August 2015 (when it reached 1.64, see Chart 1). The exception is USDCNH.

    • The biggest increase in long USD positioning has been against the PHP (to +1.0, from +0.4 two weeks ago) and the KRW (to +0.54 from +0.23 two weeks ago).

    • USDINR has seen a turnaround from a small short to a small long. This is the first flip in positioning since September 2015.

    • There has been a slight moderation in long USDTHB positioning (to +0.9, from +1.1) over the past two week.

    • Elsewhere, investor positioning in USDCNH, USDTWD, USDIDR and USDSGD is largely unchanged from two weeks ago.

    • Investors have also turned slightly long USDINR, the first flip in positioning since September 2015.

    • Meanwhile, long USDCNH positioning has remained close to last August’s peak.”
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