AUD: Dec labour force survey – Employment - Westpac

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 11, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Westpac, suggests that while they can debate magnitudes, overall Australia currently has a robust labour market outside of WA.

    Key Quotes

    “Total employment lifted 71.4k in Nov, more than triple the top of the market estimate of +20k. Westpac’s forecast was –20k. Total employment grew 344.2k (or 3.0%) over the year to Nov, a significant acceleration from Sep's 2.0%yr.

    While the gross flows data is quite volatile, the Nov data (in original terms) does suggest that sample rotation may have played a role in boosting the result. If this was the case, and it was not part of an ongoing stronger underlying trend, it is likely we should see a correction of some sort in Dec.

    Our leading indicators suggest that total employment growth should be running around 2%yr versus the ABS' 3%yr. Our –17k forecast would take the annual rate down to 2.5%yr.”
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