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AUD/JPY: caution driving the price lower

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 25, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/JPY has stabilized into a sideways drift after a strong supply in risk-off markets with the cross dropping the 83 handle in a sell-off from overnight highs of 83.52. There are a lack of drivers at the start of the week although caution remains the theme still.

    We are moving towards the FOMC this week and the first one for 2016. The start of teh year has already given us plenty of action and two way business in the absence of Central Banks and now with them coming back into focus we can expect some short-term traction one way or another. A good portion of risk remains to the downside in the event that the FOMC statement is dovish with very little chance of a rate hike given the instability of external economies and lower oil for longer.

    A lack of confidence in the statement could trigger and unwinding in the greenback that may well be a short-term benefit stocks, but the longer term implications do not bode well for a global recovery and could be supportive to the Yen overall. That said, we also have the BoJ and some officials have been calling for further easing to slow the advance in the strength of the Yen while the inflation target is under more pressure with the oil price.

    AUD/JPY levels

    Technically, the price is struggling with the 100 4hr sma at 82.56 today after advancing through it with a lack of momentum and merely paring recent highs from 12th Jan business. There is a lack of conviction until the cross can achieve the 200 sma on the same time frames at 85.11 guarding territory towards a full recovery of the start of the year's downtrend from 87.60. S2 is located at 85.52 and S3 at 82.31.
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