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AUD/NZD: now in a techncial reversal of Nov's downtrend

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 27, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/NZD was a bid on the Aussie CPI's.

    The core / trimmed mean CPI readings are in the RBA's band of between 2-3%, they register at the very low end of that bracket and headline y/y was well below at 1.7%. Therefore the upside was limited and met resistance at 1.0869, although the results enabled the bulls further gains within the ascending channel.

    The data is in stark contrast to that of New Zealand's recent CPI results, with the CPI declining 0.5% in the last quarter of 2015, against a drop of 0.2% estimated. CPI inflation actually only registered 0.1% y/y in Q4 and this has been followed by further signs that house price inflation may be easing. That coupled to the dairy prices exposes the bird and brings bets forward for a rate cut from the RBNZ.

    "Despite market expectations clearly favouring a steady policy outcome from the RBNZ we see a good chance that the Bank may cut rates again this week. We continue to favour the downside in NZD/USD towards 0.64 on a 3 mth view," explained analysts at Rabobank.

    AUD/NZD levels

    AUD/NZD is technically in a bullish reversal of the 24th Nov downtrend while trading above the 50 dma at 1.0777. The cross is bullish, headed towards the 200 dma at 1.0890. The pivot is at 1.0782 and R3 is at 1.0873, 2 pips higher than today's high so far. A break through the 200 sma looks for a full recovery to 24th Nov highs at 1.1086. To the downside, the 20 dma is at 1.0693, 3 pips above S3 with 1.0539 and 6th Jan lows guarding 29th Oct lows of 1.0496.
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