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AUD/NZd rockets towards 55 DMA looking for 1.09 closes

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 12, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/NZD is currently consolidating the post Aussie jobs data rally testing the 1.0870's having spiked from 1.0755 lows.

    AUD/NZD surged on the excellent jobs data and has pulled out of the consolidation phase around the 200 SMA on the 4hr chart for the month of November. On the following data, the RBA will be relieved and unlikely to cut interest rates as the current MP is having the intended effect in the economy while the jobs market continues to improve based on low interest rates, a weaker currency and lack of wage inflation, for now, that has been encouraging employment in the last half of the year. This all leaves the expected divergence between the RBNZ and RBA that much wider and favours the upside in the cross.

    The full-time jobs arrived at 40k vs -10.4k last, with part-time jumping 18.6k. The key Australian unemployment rate fell out of the RBA's advised bracket of 6 to 6.5% and dropped to 5.9% vs 6.2% expected and 6.2% last. The participation rate however was at 65% vs 64.9% exp and 64.9% last.

    Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac explained that the AUD/NZD has spent almost all of Q4 so far in the 1.05-1.10 band, which now accounts for 11% of all trading days since the NZD float. "This looks like undershooting to us, so long as the RBA does not deliver on its (mild) easing bias and the RBNZ does deliver on its (clear) easing bias. But even a return to the lower reaches of the 1.10- 1.15 band would leave AUD/NZD well below the average of the past 30 years."

    AUD/NZD levels

    Technically, resistance is accumulated at the 28th July lows of 1.0895 AUD/NZD bulls target the 55 DMA at 1.0923 for a recovery back above the 1.10 handle and into the wide range and channel between 1.0895 and 1st July highs of 1.1429.
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