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AUD/NZD: the only way is up, or is it?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 2, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - After a number weeks until the end of Nov business, with the Aussie being the strongest G10 and the bird being the weakest, AUD/NZD has started to consolidate around the 1.10 level after a one way street in the cross as the Aussie took flight and was the best performer, despite metals falling, reaching a handful of pips below 1.1100.

    The bird has however been relatively firm vs the greenback capping the Aussie to a marginal score through the psychological 1.10 with the GDT price index offer some support to the bird. There could be a case on the bid for the bird now that it has pulled away from the MA cluster on the daily charts with a key target of 0.6800 vs the dollar which could cap the cross, but that all depends on the RBNZ and FOMC and how much of the probability of the divergence of the outcomes of these meetings is already priced in. The OPEC meeting could be significant before Nonfarm Payrolls and RBNZ next week, while the Aussie might be more susceptible to the outcome of OPEC that are expected to cut supply, driving the price of oil high medium term which should be supportive to the commodity bloc currencies.

    The additional lift in the cross came of the GDP for Q3 for Australia tracking trend and a good result according to RBA's Stevens, who, however, recently explained that the Bank are ready to cut rates if necessary, but only should the economy contract although remaining optimistic in a speech he said, "The prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months.”

    AUD/NZD levels

    AUD/NZD is technically sideways between the cluster of short-term MA's on the hourly chart, supported by the 100 4hr SMA at 1.0967 on the downside. R3 came in as resistance in the US shift while a break of here would be targeting 1.1080 and Nov highs without much standing in the way until 1.1280.
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