AUD outlook: All about China today - ANZ

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 19, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Bali) - The ANZ Research Team provides today's currency outlook on the Australian Dollar vs its major peers, noting that today's China Q3 GDP release will determine the short term bias in the currency.

    Currency outlook

    AUD/USD: CHINA… AUD consolidated on Friday, giving back modest gains after a strong week. US Michigan confidence outperformed, while US industrial production saw positive revisions. With markets looking to next week’s FOMC meeting, this week’s focus will be on China. Today we have China Q3 GDP and September data, and we are likely to get hints as to the policy to be decided at next week’s China Fifth Plenum, where the next five year plan will be outlined. Markets have been more relaxed about Chinese prospects lately. Expected range: 0.7160 – 0.7380

    AUD/NZD: CHINA BETA… It is all about the beta to China today, Australia typically has a higher ‘beta’ – reaction to Chinese news – but lately NZD has outperformed on ‘good’ news. Expected range: 1.0590 – 1.0730

    AUD/EUR: ECB – WILL THEY? The main focus for this cross will be the ECB meeting on Thursday night. After recent comments by Governing Council Member Nowotny regarding the “obvious” case for further stimulus, the markets will likely keep EUR capped. Expected range: 0.6300 – 0.6510

    AUD/JPY: “UNLIKELY”… Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said the BoJ was unlikely to expand stimulus at the moment. This is important ahead of next week’s BoJ meeting, as it allows JPY to strengthen further. Expected range: 85.00 – 87.80

    AUD/GBP: ALL QUIET… GBP is likely to have a quiet week with just UK retail sales to change market sentiment. GBP/USD is mid-range, but this cross looks overly strong. Expected range: 0.4630 – 0.4780
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