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AUD: RBA minutes at a glance - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 17, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Prashant Newnaha, Rates Strategist at TD Securities, notes that there was nothing we already didn’t know within the minutes from the RBA’s 3rd Nov meeting.

    Key Quotes

    “While the Bank referred to low inflation as providing scope for the Bank to cut, such a move is clearly not on the agenda. The Bank expects household consumption to add significantly to demand and employment is expected to hold up over the following months. The key risk is China. Key paras appear below:

    On demand: "Members noted that the ongoing improvement in domestic demand, together with the increased competitiveness from the lower exchange rate, were expected to lead to a pick-up in non-mining business investment in the second half of the forecast period."

    Positive impact of lower AUD on services: "Support provided to the economy following the depreciation of the exchange rate was particularly apparent in the sizeable contribution to growth from net service exports over the year to date. Growth in net service exports was expected to continue to boost growth in output over the forecast period. These developments had been accompanied by significant growth in employment in the services sector"

    Positive outlook for employment: "Employment growth had been stronger than expected over 2015 and this had been accompanied by a noticeable increase in the participation rate. Employment growth had been concentrated in the household and business services sectors. Measures of job vacancies and advertisements pointed to continued growth in employment in the months ahead."

    Earlier in the day, RBA Assistant Governor—Economic, Christopher Kent delivered a short speech—the key takeaway - don’t bet on commodity prices rising substantially, gains would be limited thanks to slower IP growth and officials attempting to transition the Chinese economy away from manufacturing to consumption. That said he did strike a positive note citing the resilient service sector, growth in new jobs and room for Chinese policy makers to provide further support.”
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