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AUD: RBA signals dovish shift - Goldman Sachs

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 2, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – In view of Goldman Sachs Research Team, the RBA's first formal communication for 2016 signalled an incrementally dovish shift, via an implicit focus on below-target inflation, the challenging requirement for ongoing improvement in the labour market, and the risk that the recent tightening in global financial conditions may weigh on both global and domestic demand.

    Key Quotes

    “That said, there is nothing in today's statement to suggest that the RBA is positioning for a near term rate cut. We note that the central bank's characterisation of domestic conditions remains quite upbeat, efforts to cool the housing market appear to still be a work in progress, the RBA is not overly anxious about the level of the AUD, and it will take time to assess the fallout in the real economy (if any) from the volatility in global financial markets. We also caution that the December labour force report flagged that sampling volatility will have a positive impact on January's update.

    All in all, the RBA remains in wait and see mode and will likely require at least a few more months of data before it feels comfortable recalibrating policy. While our base case is that rates remain on hold through 2016, we see the risk of a cut over 1H2016 as slightly less than a 50% probability. Beyond this Friday's Statement on Monetary Policy, key things to watch will be signs of key surveys (including for the labour market) breaking down, a further weakening in the inflation outlook, and an ongoing moderation in house prices.”
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