AUD: Retail sales marching on Christmas shopping season - SocGen

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 2, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Societe Generale, expects Australia’s retail sales growth in December to have maintained November’s solid pace of 0.4% mom (4.9% saar), supported by strong employment growth, healthy wages growth in real terms, and positive wealth effects from real estate prices (albeit weakening in Sydney).

    Key Quotes

    “Food sales should have strengthened from their rather subdued pace during much of the year, when a supermarket price war – and weak global agricultural commodity prices – curbed price inflation, and hence held down nominal growth in the sector (which accounts for around 40% of total retail turnover).

    In contrast, we see little scope for further growth in sales of furniture and household goods, following very strong growth in the previous three months. Sales of clothing will be interesting, given CPI data which suggest that prices rebounded strongly, pointing to solid growth in nominal terms. Lastly, we expect sales in the food services sector to have extended November’s rebound after fairly soft growth in the middle quarters of the year. In all, a result as we predict would put Q4 retail sales growth at 1.4% qoq (5.8% saar), the strongest quarterly expansion since Q1 2014.

    Real retail sales in Q4 are expected to reflect the strength in nominal sales, given that inflation remained moderate in Q4, except perhaps in apparel. Food and household goods sales are likely to have led the expansion, whereas apparel sales probably declined outright on the back of sharply higher prices and a very strong run for the previous five quarters. Sales at food outlets probably did little better than maintain the Q3 level.

    Still, at 4% annualised and 3% yoy growth, we would consider this a positive result, which would also point to solid growth in broader private consumption expenditure. Though as usual, the proviso applies that strong sales to tourists are boosting the retail sales figures relative to domestic private consumption.”
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