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AUD retains gains post-RBA ‘on-hold’, a flurry of PMIs – Up next

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 1, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Aussie maintained its strong momentum post-RBA decision and traded firmer above 0.7250 levels. As widely expected the RBA left its cash rate unchanged at record low 2% at its policy meeting this Tuesday. NZD/USD also remained strongly bid in Asia above 0.66 handle while the yen fought back control versus its American counterpart, sending USD/JPY below 123.00.

    Key headlines in Asia

    Caixin China Nov manufacturing PMI beats estimates

    China Nov official manufacturing PMI dives deeper into contraction

    RBA keeps rates unchanged as expected

    Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD

    Today’s Asian session was a busy one, with a host of economic releases across the Asia-pac regions dominating the currency markets. USD/JPY lost ground and fell into losses below 123 handle as the US dollar corrected from multi-month-highs on profit-taking ahead of data-explosion later this week. Meanwhile the EUR/USD pair once against stalled its recovery just below 1.06 handle and remains within a striking distance of the seven-month lows reached on Monday near 1.0560 levels.

    While the Antipodean outperformed the G10 currencies on increased demand for higher yielding currencies as risk-sentiment seeped back in the markets. The solid rebound in the Asian equities along with the recovery in commodity prices while upbeat Caixin Chinese manufacturing gauge, all collaborated to strong run in both OZ currencies. While the RBA rates on-hold stance turned out be a non-event as the Aussie was little impacted by the decision and held onto the gains, as such a move was already priced-in by markets. AUD/USD now rises 0.55% to 0.7265 while the Kiwi jumps 0.62% at 0.6623, with the stops triggered above 0.66 handle.

    On the equities space, most Asian indices are rebounding higher on persisting risk sentiment. Japan’s benchmark, the Nikkei now rallies 0.84% to 19,913 while Australia’s S&P ASX index advances 2% to 5,266. The mainland China’s benchmark, the Shanghai Composite drops -0.44% to 3,430 points. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumps 1.68% to 22,373.

    Heading into Europe & the US

    An action-packed European session ahead, with a raft of final manufacturing PMIs from across Euro area economies to dominates. While the employment data from the 19-nation bloc and Germany will be also reported.

    The euro zone preliminary manufacturing PMI in November came in at 52.8 and the same result is expected in the final reading. While manufacturing sector activity in Germany recorded 52.6in its flash reading, which is expected to hold in the final result. The UK manufacturing PMI is seen ticking lower to 53.6 from 55.5 recorded in October.

    While the Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 10.8% in October. The German unemployment rate is also expected to remain at 6.4%, after the same rate recorded in October.

    Apart from data, the BOE will publish the results of its latest round of stress tests of UK banks alongside its Financial Stability Report, followed by BOE Governor Carney’s speech.

    In the North American session, the Canadian GDP data will be published followed by the ISM manufacturing PMI from the US and the fortnightly Fonterra’s dairy auction results.

    EUR/USD Technicals

    Research Team at AceTrader noted, “Yesterday's marginal weakness below last Wednesday's 7-month trough of 1.0565 to 1.0558 in New York suggests euro's medium-term downtrend would resume after consolidation and reckon 1.0595/05 res area would hold and yield one more fall. However, near term loss of momentum should keep price above daily sup at 1.0521 today and bring a long-overdue correction later. On the upside, a daily close above 1.0605 would be the 1st signal temporary low is in place, then euro would move higher to 1.0638/42 but last week's high at 1.0689 (Wed) should cap upside.”
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