AUD shrugs off better CPI as Oil resumes slide, FOMC in focus

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 27, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Mumbai) - A turnaround in risk conditions was witnessed in Asia after the US oil skid back in the red and triggered a renewed bout of risk-aversion across the financial markets. While the extended sell-off in Chinese stocks weighed on the Antipodeans and boosted the safe-haven appeal of the yen.

    Key headlines in Asia

    Australia's Q4 2015 inflation data beats expectations

    Post-CPI, pricing for RBA rate cut reduced

    China's industrial profits drop at a faster pace in Dec

    Dominating themes in Asia – centered on JPY, AUD and NZD

    Nothing changes for the markets this Wednesday as the oil prices continue to dominate the sentiment across the board. The reversal in the oil prices refuelled risk-off moods and as a result the risky assets such as the equities, industrial metals and the Antipodeans came under fresh selling pressure.

    Among the Antipodes, the Aussie outperformed, finding support from the better than expected CPI report. The CPI rose 0.4% over the October-December period, easing from the 0.5% in the September quarter but higher than forecasts of 0.3%. While the Kiwi was sold-into almost non-existent appetite for risk and dropped below 0.65 handle. While AUD/USD remained capped below 0.7050 levels and fell as low as 0.7007, before recovering to 0.7020, where it now wavers.

    On the other hand, the safe-havens continue to benefit from the risk-averse market profile, with USD/JPY struggling to hold above 118 handle. While the EUR/USD pair trades modestly flat, side-lined above 1.0850 levels and awaits the Fed decision for fresh direction. Gold trades at multi-month highs above $ 1020 mark.

    On the equities space, the Australian markets re-opened on a negative note, with the ASX 200 index falling -1.18%, while the Nikkei index jumps 2.23% to 17,075. The Chinese equities extended losses on capital outflow worries, with the Shanghai Composite down over 2.80%, while Shenzhen’s CSI300 index sinks -2.22%.

    Heading into Europe and North America

    The EUR calendar continue to remain data-quiet for the third straight session, with the second-liner data expected to keep the EUR, GBP traders busy. The session will kick-off with the GFK consumer climate followed by the nationwide HPI and mortgage approval data from the UK.

    Next today we hear from the ECB’s Lane, the BoE’s Bailey, and then the ECB’s Mersch and Lautenschlaeger, followed by the BoE’s Shafik.

    While the NY session offers the new home sales and the weekly crude inventory report from the EIA. Besides, the FOMC decision is expected to remain the main focus today, with markets expecting the Fed stance to turn more dovish as the central bank may acknowledge the recent turbulence in the financial markets.

    Analysts at Westpac noted, “The FOMC statement is due 2pm NY. The Fed's assessment of international developments and the implications for the US economy and financial markets should be focus for discussion. With only a short statement, we expect the Fed to repeat that normalization will proceed as data allows in 2016, though markets will be watching for any shift to a more dovish stance.”

    “Given the low Fed hike odds priced in (25%) by March, retention of much of the language of the Dec statement could be enough to support USD. There should be no dissenters despite the new voting rotation which is on the face of it more hawkish: George, Mester, Bullard and Rosengren replacing Evans, Lockhart, Williams and Lacker.”
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