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AUD still at risk even vs NZD - BNPP

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 3, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BNP Paribas, maintains a bearish bias on AUDUSD in the aftermath of the RBA rate decision, holding on to our 0.70 put expiring on Friday.

    Key Quotes

    “The Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday should offer more detail on the RBA’s current thinking. Furthermore the risks to AUDUSD surrounding US nonfarm payrolls this week appear asymmetric – a strong number should help the USD via higher yields, while a weak number would likely add to risk aversion and weigh on the AUD.

    Australian data this morning was weak with the trade deficit widening by AUD 1 billion more than expected at -3.535 billion. Building approvals are negative at -2.5% yy after averaging 20% y/y for most of 2015. This combination has weakend AUDUSD.

    In contrast, New Zealand employment and wage growth were both robust with unemployment falling sharply. The RBNZ signalled a renewed easing bias in December and softer jobs data could see the markets price in higher probability of a March rate cut.

    The disconnect between local data points implies markets are not pricing enough RBA easing into AUD. We stressed yesterday that FX markets hold a much larger NZD short exposure at -34 compared to AUD at -6.”
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