AUD/USD: 0.7300 and skepticism on Aussie jobs

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 10, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD maintains its spot around the 0.73 handle after yesterdays jobs data despite a pull pack from the highs on the knee jerk at 0.7334. This is going to be a hard level to conquer given commodity prices and the RBA's desire for a weaker currency.

    However, the jobs data was (dubiously) outstandingly strong and analysts at TD Securities explained the data, "Employment in Nov apparently jumped by +71.4k (TD and mkt –10k) after the outsized Oct (revised down but still a solid +56.1k). As the participation rate jumped to 65.3%, the unemployment rate “only” fell from 5.9% to 5.8%. Annual employment growth surged ahead to 3%/yr, zooming past the guidance that job vacancies suggests."

    However, analysts are skeptical that the economy can offer such jobs growth and the analysts at TD Securities wonder how a sub-trend economy with shrinking domestic demand is generating jobs at a pace this year that is literally multiples of recent years. " Employment in original terms used to shrink in October and November (2009-2013) but in 2015 a large number of jobs were created, hence these consecutive outsized seasonally adjusted estimates have dropped out."

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, AUD/USD is still some way off the 200 DMA at 0.7449 and only a break of that would be convincing enough that the market is indeed set on the upside, despite the RBA. 0.7380 is the big target now on a push through aforementioned highs while 0.7200 guards guards the 200 SMA on the 4hr chart. S3 is at 0.7166. RSI (14) is neutral while momentum has also turned less positive. Expecting consolidation.

    What will 2016 bring to the Forex traders? Attend our Forex Forecast 2016 - The Panel with Ashraf Laidi, Valeria Bednarik, Boris Schlossberg, Adam Button, Ivan Delgado and Dale Pinkert. Register for the live event on Dec. 18th and get the recording too.

    For more information, read our latest forex news.

Share This Page

free forex signals