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AUD/USD: 0.7320 resisting in recovery towards 200 DMA

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 1, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - The Aussie has been the top performing major throughout November, already rising 2% against the US dollar before today's poor US data induced extension to the upside. This has taken place even with iron ore prices falling to new multi-year lows.

    AUD/USD has been a drift into 0.73 territory on a continuation of the minor recovery from 0.7170 in late Nov business but was propelled to 0.7320 highs on the back of the ISM shocker, with lowest activity in the manufacturing industry since 2009. However, the jobs detail cushioned the blow with 51.3 vs 48.4 expected and 47.6 prior in employment.

    There are some concerns in the details for GDP outlook in respect of inventories, but overall, while this may have raised concerns over the forthcoming FOMC among Fed voters and the markets, judging by the reaction on bond desks, James Knightley, analyst at ING Bank explained that on balance, they still think the Fed will hike on the back of a dwarfing services sector, rising wages, employment and core inflation. Nonfarm Payrolls have been made just that more critical this week.

    Meanwhile, the RBA left rates on hold as expected. Despite the shockingly weak capex report last week, Stevens does not appear to be in any hurry to cut rates again any time soon. For the next major catalyst, besides Stevens speaking, the Q3 GDP figures are out tonight in Asia. With the market expecting that the economy grew by 0.8% after a 0.2% expansion in Q2.

    AUD/USD upside potential medium term

    Overall, should the Fed hike, there could be scope for a continuation of dollar weakness in early 2016 with a very long dollar bias built up to the fact and end of year repatriation of flows, while looking forward, markets might judge that rates will be left low for an extended period of time, allowing for a period of relief while dollar weakness would be welcomed by the Fed in the long run, especially in the manufacturing sector as displayed in these ISM details today. While the RBA remain bullish and non dovish, the Aussie has scope to continue performing well across the board and could target the 200 DMA over the medium term despite some potential setbacks in December along the way.

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, 0.7250/70 was taken out and that is significant as a key resistance with the price now balancing on the 0.73 handle. However, for a convincing bullish trend to take shape, a continuation of the upside would need to break the 200 DMA at 0.7467 and continue higher to alleviate downside pressures stemming from 0.9200 and Sep 2014 downtrend.

    Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that they are looking for gains towards 0.7381/85, the October high and the 38.2% retracement. "There is scope for the 200 day, but then we would expect the up move to struggle."
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