AUD/USD 2015/2016 review/preview - NYE rush to greenbacks

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 31, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - In AUD/USD, despite a recovery in copper and oil, we are trading close to the pivot at 0.7288 within a 50 pip range as volatility picked up when the Aussie was dumped after climbing in Asia overnight to score 0.7328 the high. Markets are thin, scatty and pretty irrational today in a rush to end of year dollars - so here is to looking forward to real markets in 2016.

    Having started the year about 0.8100, AUD/USD is about to close 2015 8 cents in the red. However, we were at one stage at 0.6907 the low for 2015 while today, at time of writing we are trading 0.7280.

    RBA: a look back

    The late recovery in September came as markets priced out any further easing for the year from the RBA until H1 2016 and with the market already very long of the greenback on the prospects and hype around the Fed normalising rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate at 2 per cent for the seventh month in a row in Dec, but left the door ajar for a further cut in 2016. In the accompanying statement in Dec, the RBA said the low inflation outlook "left scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand".

    Fundamental risks to AUD/USD

    Subdued inflation, well below their target 2 to 3 per cent, and cooling house prices in Australia's hot spots, Sydney and Melbourne allow the RBA room to maneuver if need be in Feb/March and/or May as most likely months in 2016 to see a move if warranted. Risks come in from a global backdrop that is still going to be of growth below trend.

    Oil is a big factor and commodity prices in general, including those of iron ore and coal, will probably be lower still while China's economy continues to disappoint. The Fed will be another risk should they continue to raise rates in 2016, and/or as US yields start to finally follow through in 2016 supporting a stronger dollar and lower global commodity price and a potential continuation of a lower Aussie as the RBA battles in the currency wars to attract export business. Capex will be one to watch and the services/jobs sector.

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, we are back to the pivotal supporting area after overnight demand dropped and todays sell off took out stops in broad US strength. We stay with the 20 DMA at 0.7241 guarding S3 at 0.7238 on the short-term sticks as next support on further dollar buying today.

    On the upside, the 200 DMA at 0.7418 pressures from above on the wide then the 3-month uptrend at 0.7086 should be respected as well as the 0.7017 November low and the September low is at 0.6940 for the downside levels.
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