AUD/USD: 2016 recovery compromised

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 5, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD lost its footing as the greenback clawed back the best part of this month's uptrend when markets took up the US dollar on the back of 'ok' nonfarm payrolls data.

    AUD/USD had been in pursuit of a complete recovery of the 2016 downtrend, but the 0.72 handle was not a convincing play topping out at a high of 0.7242. Besides the nonfarm payrolls, the Aussie was surrounded by domestic events overnight with the RBA's quarterly statement on the economy and retail sales. The RBA rescued the Aussie temporarily while the retails sales was a surprise to the downside and missing expectations.

    In respect to the RBA's statement, analysts at TD Securities explained, "With offshore risks well documented and no change to 2016 GDP and underlying inflation projections, market participants quickly moved on. The most attention was on “[employment] is forecast to remain strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate further”. All up, RBA upbeat, and removing the likelihood of the RBA cutting at or before May."

    AUD/USD levels

    AUD/USD has sold off below the 55 dma at 0.7133 and RSI (14) on the 4hr allows for further downside correction of the recent rally. "The 2014-2016 downtrend lies at .7180 and reinforces resistance, " mentioned Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank.

    "A move back below the 0.7017 November low should be enough to trigger further weakness. Longer term the risks are on the downside and we target the 0.6774 2004 low. Nearby support at 0.6920 guards the 0.6828/29 recent lows."
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