AUD/USD: a bullish close in a January reversal

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 28, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD remains in a bullish phase in the reversal of the 2016 downtrend and now approaches the 55 dma at 0.7140 having scored a session high overnight of 0.7129.

    The price has since fallen back below the 0.71 handle and is moving in a sideways drift back along the 1hr 20 sma while oil and copper take a respite in their own reversals on the charts.

    The main event in the US was the durable goods orders missing on a very large scale, with -5.1% vs -0.6% expected and -0.5% prior, however, ex transportation the number arrived at -1.2% vs -0.1% These do not bode well for tomorrow's first estimate of US Q4 GDP.

    GDP Q4 next main event for AUD/USD, and can be watched live here with FXStreet

    GDP forecast and potentially 2 2016 hikes from Fed

    Rob Carnell, analyst at ING explained however, "We will take a long hard look at our slightly-above-consensus 1.3%QoQ (saar) forecast for tomorrow's GDP data. In particular, to see if we have a weak enough business investment figure. There is a good chance that we will trim that GDP forecast closer to the existing consensus (0.9%) though that will already be being revised lower as we speak, and the published consensus will now look optimistic to many."

    Carnell added, "With weather likely to weigh on 1Q16 GDP, and the Fed sounding more dovish by the day, our current forecast of two rate hikes from the Fed in 2016 is looking overly aggressive right now, and is also looking in need of downward modification."

    AUD/USD technically

    Should AUD/USD continue to recovery in the reversal of the 2016 downtrend, the price targets the 55 day ma at 0.7140 and a penetration of there could give way for a test of 0.7221, the 78.6% retracement. And to add, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained earlier that in the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators are turning south from overbought territory, but the pair holds above its 200 EMA and the 20 SMA in this last with a strong bullish slope, all of which maintains the risk towards the downside limited.
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