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AUD/USD: adios 0.76 and hello below?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    AUD/USD is tucked in below the 0.76 handle after a descent that left the Aussie under scrutiny at the start of this week. Time to get of the recovery train?

    The week ahead has little on the cards (Key events in U.S. Q4 GDP and Japan CPI - Nomura) and gives us some time to reflect on the FOMC surprise outcome, as explained at the start of this week by analysts at ANZ. However, they key events are US: Durable goods (Thursday 12:30 gmt), Q4 GDP (third estimate) (Friday 12:30 gmt). We might have to wait for next month for further impetus from China manufacturing and US nonfarm payrolls while the Aussie looks range bound in a consolidation phase.

    Meanwhile, for the day ahead, we look to Fed speakers, hearing from Richmond Fed president Lacker (hawk) on inflation and Atlanta Fed's Lockhart (centrist) on the US economy. Then, we turn heads to Australia in the Asian shift, with the house price index Q4.

    Australia's housing market is potentially headed for a bubble

    It is no secret that Australian households have accrued more debt compared to the size of the country's economy than any other in the world.

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF), recently published that the housing market risks in Australia remain heightened, especially in Sydney. Home loans, interest only loans and investor credit are to blame and house prices are estimated to be moderately overvalued by about 10%. Yet demand remains strong. There is a growing population and increased purchases of residential real estate by foreign nationals, such as those for China. At the same time, the RBA has kept its cash rate at a record low of 2%, after cutting it by 25 basis points each in February and in May 2015.

    However, despite the government's attempts to help first-time homebuyers over the years, property, especially in its five major metropolitan areas, remained “severely unaffordable” in 2015, according to the Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey. If residential construction continues to decline, this could, however, also weigh on the prices of housing.

    There are also two speeches t look out for today. There is the panel participation by Malcolm Edey, Assistant Governor (Financial System), at the ASIC Annual Forum 2016, Sydney and then a speech by Glenn Stevens, Governor, at the ASIC Annual Forum 2016, Sydney to follow.

    AUD/USD levels

    Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that AUD/USD’s move higher last week reached the 61.8% retracement at 0.7650/52 and she noticed the 13 count on the daily chart and some caution is necessary. "We would allow for some near term weakness. The intraday Elliott count is suggesting a retracement to 0.7520/.7415."
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