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AUD/USD: awaiting Yellen and missing China

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 10, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    AUD/USD is currently consolidating the upside recovery but is prone to supply judging by the price action and lack of follow though on the bid, capped below the 200 sma on the hourly chart at 0.7098.

    Despite the sell-off in the greenback, the Aussie has been relatively subdued while investors run for cover and understandably prefer gold and the Yen. Data is supportive to the Aussie today with new home sales mom for December came in at 6.0% vs -2.7% prior. Earlier, Westpac consumer confidence was at 101.3 vs 97.3 prior as well. We await Stevens and Yellen both testifying.

    It is now all about Yellen

    Yellen is up today in the US shift and Stevens' testimony is tomorrow. If Yellen fails to turn sentiment around, the greenback is exposed to yet further unwinding. Stevens on the other hand seems to have a handle on the outlook for Australia's economy with a cool head and should manage to maintain the status-quo, while being more vigilant and cautiously optimistic.

    Meanwhile, we are without China for a week but its ok, the markets are (NOT...) doing just fine without them!

    AUD/USD levels

    Now trading around 0.7060, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that the 1 hour chart for the pair shows that the price stands a few pips above a bearish 20 SMA, (0.7049 currently in Asia). she suggested that the technical indicators are mostly flat around their mid-lines, lacking directional strength.

    However, "In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA heads sharply lower above the current level, acting as an immediate resistance around the 0.7100 figure, while the Momentum indicator heads higher below its 100 level and the RSI indicator heads south around 44, maintaining the risk towards the downside."

    She added that a break below 0.7040, the immediate support, should lead to a retest of the 0.7000 figure, en route to the daily low of 0.6972. We have the pivot directly below at 0.7046 and S2 at 0.6942 and S3 at 0.6924.
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