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AUD/USD: awaits catalyst for further upside through fibo

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 19, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    AUD/USD is currently perched below the highs scored overnight bringing the Aussie into question as to whether it is overbought or this has legs through this fibo resistance area and can continue higher.

    AUD/USD rallied overnight and in a continuation of the recovery after the Doha news at the start of this week. The pair found a new birth of demand on the back of Stevens in NY and of course yesterday's RBA minutes with both events signalling that the RBA are comfortable where they are and that the economy is on course with monetary stimulus still to show signs of effect in the economy.

    "There was a twist in the RBA April meeting minutes, with “Globally, inflation had remained low and very easy monetary policies were continuing to provide support to global demand” and closer to home “Given these [low inflation] conditions, members assessed that it was appropriate for monetary policy to be very accommodative” where “very” wasn't referred to in the March Minutes. So global interest rates and domestic interest rates are both “very” easy/accommodative, and we think this is an even firmer floor under the 2% cash rate," explained analysts at TD Securities and this has offered the bulls the green light to continue with the campaign for a break on to the 0.78 handle and onward.

    AUD/USD levels

    We have now conquered the 0.78 handle and have targets set on fibo resistance at 0.7849. A break of here would be significant because it is the area of resistance that has held since June 2015 within the strong downtrend of 2014. A rally here opens-up the the 100 week sma at 0.7934. To the downside, a break of 0.7760 opens a fast leg down to 0.7691 ahead of 0.7652 as the next supporting zones with a loss of the 0.77 handle.
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