AUD/USD: back below 20 1hr sma but still bullish

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 29, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has settled back again after reaching fresh highs overnight at 0.7140 and was pressured from there to back below the 20 sma on the hourly chart to lose the 0.71 handle.

    Current spot is attempting a recovery, but struggles at the vicinity of the 20 sma at 0.7096. Risk has been mixed ever since the BoJ adopted a negative rates policy and now we await the RBA next month, expected to hold on the cash rate of 2.0% where rates have been since May of last year and a record low for the Central Bank. Some analysts expect a rate cut later on in the year.

    "TD/consensus expects no change, but how will the board view global market volatility and the lower exchange rate? The Board will preview their updated GDP and CPI staff projections (out Friday), but is unlikely to prompt any alteration to Dec's “chill out” easing bias," explained analysts at TD Securities.

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, AUD/USD was testing the vicinity of the 55 day ma at 0.7147 that guards a return to 0.7221, the 78.6% retracement, as noted by Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank, "Our favoured scenario is that the market will fail around its 55 day ma. Longer term the risks are on the downside and we target the .6774 2004 low. Nearby support at .6920 guards the .6828/29 recent lows." Unmtil the price moves below the 100 sma on th ehourly,the bias remains bullish.
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