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AUD/USD: bears lap up the disinflation in the nation

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 30, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD bears are testing the bulls commitments on the inflation outlook for the Australian economy and a run at stops has occurred in recent trade as we approach Tokyo and better liquidity again for the week. The TD Securities inflation gauge and trimmed mean for Nov came in below the RBA's target of between 2-3% at 1.6%y/y.

    Casting minds back, the Australian Capex numbers came out the worst in over 30 years last week which was another catalyst for the downside, with the private capital expenditures falling 9.2% compared to the -2.9% expected. While the RBA is said to be taking a chill-pill for the festive season and are unlikely to make any changes to their monetary policy anytime before February, data such as this and the disinflationary, (Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5 per cent in the September quarter 2015, following a rise of 0.7 per cent in the June quarter 2015.), outlook will be keenly monitored vs the improving unemployment data that has so far been propping up the economy of late and allowing the RBA a comfort zone while they monitor the economy and effects of previous easing.

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that in the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA stands above the current level, offering an immediate resistance around 0.7240, while the technical indicators are aiming higher, but below their mid-lines. We are also trading below the 100 DMA here and pressures are mounting against a well supported area ahead of a busy week for commodities and US events.
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