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AUD/USD bears taking control after bad Aussie data

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 4, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    AUD/USD dropped to the downside in a sell-off on the back of the Aussie retail sales that disappointed vs expectations.

    AUD/USD went from a recovery high of 0.7672 just prior to the release to 0.7650 within a minute bar, catching some support and to oscillate within several pips of the low for a short period before further selling down to current lows of 0.7647. Australia's Feb retail sales came at 0.0% m/m vs 0.4% expected and 0.3% last. All in all, a big miss. At the same time, however, and offering some support, building approvals for February were a very good result, +3.1% m/m vs. +2.0%, considering that previous that was -6.6% although revised higher from -7.5%.

    AUD/USD levels

    AUD/USD's recent highs of 0.7722 and of a number of recent attempts at the 0.77 handle, was noted recently by Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank, to have been accompanied by a divergence of the daily RSI and has yet to see a close above the 0.7680 previous high. That was a concerning technical picture for the bulls as it was, and now the fundamentals and coming in to the downside also on this data ahead of the forthcoming RBA.

    But, staying with technicals, the downside is now exposed without closes above the aforementioned 0.7680 level. "A close above 0.7680 (18th March high) to trigger gains to 0.7850 (38.2% retracement of move down from 2014) and the 0.8030/50 target engage (base measurement)," explained Karen Jones. To the downside, the price is approaching the 100 sma on the 1hr at 0.7639 and break there opens the 200 sma on the same time frame at 0.7588 for near term levels.
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