AUD/USD below 0.7000 and China taking the headlines in 2016

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 10, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - While the Fed and US dollar have taken a back seat in the market's popularity, this Asian session will yet again be dominated by China. There is nothing to come out data wise today, nothing scheduled anyway, but markets will be keeping to an ear to the ground and trying to pre-empt what the Chinese authorities next move will be.

    We have seen the start of 2016 that came with a crisis in China unfolding and ricochets across the financial markets matrix, supporting the Yen and a net long dollar in the CFTC positioning data for the first time since the early days of Abenomics back in October 2013, as noted by Kit Juckes, economist at Societe Generale. That obviously means bad news for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY.

    AUD/USD reverses in first week 2016

    The Aussie had made a decent recovery leading into the end of 2015, but that all has been totally reversed and we are now trading well below the psychological 0.7000, that is hardly surprising considering the fundamentals that almost seemed to have been ignored since August last year while markets preferred to be on the right side of the RBA and their stubborn bullishness about the prospects for the Australian economy and outlook, despite the overwhelmingly alarming conditions of the Chinese economy unfolding before their very own eyes.

    AUD/USD traders pricing in an RBA rate cut

    Of course, the RBA had good reasons to clutch at straws and delay vs the inevitable for as long as possible, but it seems now that the market has started to price in a rate cut from the RBA in February for it is highly unlikely that the economy and subsequent data will be immune from this crisis for much longer and that the inflation target can remains within the 2-3% bracket.

    In respect of rates, Stevens said earlier in 2015 after holding off once again, “I'm more than content to lower it if that actually helps, but is it the best thing to do at a particular time...As for February, that's three months away, we've got Christmas, we should just chill out and see what the economic data says.” Well, these are not "chillout" market conditions any longer, that is for sure.

    In respect of data, we had the Chinese inflation data out over the weekend which offered a slightly stronger than expected CPI 1.6% y/y vs 1.5% previous and PPI -5.9% vs -5.8% expected with -5.% prev. So little in it, but it highlights China's ongoing ordeal with low inflation and this should not be supportive to the Aussie for the week ahead. We will also have China's trade balance this week, with a preview from TD Securities that can be read here.

    AUD/USD key data this week

    Meanwhile, from Australia, we will get the key jobs market report from Australia this week and it is expected to draw a huge amount of attention and could be a big market mover considering all of the above. "Approx 130k jobs have been added in the last 2 months, a phenomenal increase for an economy that is growing sub-trend. Our above-consensus forecast (-10k vs 15k) is not held with tremendous conviction, and employment growth at 3% is exceeding that suggested by job vacancy data." explained analysts at TD Securities.

    AUD/USD downside levels eye 0.6907

    Technically, late September lows remain compelling at 0.6940 before 0.6907 the low. 0.7000 and then 0.7080 are first key resistances while bulls may struggle at 0.7090. 0.7120 thereafter and 0.7156 are next stops.
    For more information, read our latest forex news.

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