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AUD/USD bulls back into the trenches

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 1, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is caught in a half a figure range on the 0.70 handle after losing the territory of recent highs at the midpoint of the 0.71 handle while the greenback has come back into vogue in the absence of anything concrete domestically after Australia's surprise inflation numbers and outside of commodity and global stock performances, despite the yuan stabilizing again in the middle to the end of January.

    Overnight, the Chinese PMI's, on balance, were again a disappointment with only the Caixan surprising to the upside and somewhat confirms a continuation of an economy in contraction. Today was the US manufacturing ISM for January that was a little weaker than expected, but the key part of the data came in the degree of weakness within in the employment component, which fell to 45.9 from 48.0 – the worst outcome since June 2009, as noted by James Knightley, analyst at ING Bank who explained that this suggests that the sector will be a drag on overall employment growth in Friday's payrolls at the end of the week.

    All eyes on RBA, well, Stevens actually

    But, before, then, eyes will be on the RBA. While there are zero expectations of any action from the Central Bank, but markets will be tuned in to understand where Stevens has his outlooks on the price of the Aussie given its recent appreciation and falling commodity prices, downside risks to inflation in the economy and recent turbulence in the global economy.

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank noted that AUD/USD last week tested the 55 day ma at 0.7145 which capped and should price rally, she targets a return to 0.7221, the 78.6% retracement. "Our favoured scenario is that the market will fail around its 55 day ma. Longer term the risks are on the downside and we target the 0.6774 2004 low. Nearby support at 0.6920 guards the .6828/29 recent lows."
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