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AUD/USD: bulls finally in control ahead of key CPI next week

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 22, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7025 with a high of 0.7046 and low of 0.6986.

    AUD/USD has claimed the 0.70 handle this week and with conviction whilst remaining better bid towards the close, penetrating the 0.7020 resistance. Global markets improved in risk sentiment and yesterday's session was the final catalyst where the Aussie was able to break through the 200 sma on the hourly sticks for the first time since opening this year.

    However, key data will also now start to kick in for Australia again next week and analysts at TD Securities explained, "We expect headline CPI to post a tepid +0.3%/qtr with seasonal increases in recreation and alcohol&tobacco curbed by a fall in petrol prices. Comparing the TD inflation gauge by sub-sector with the ABS measures (and our estimates) for these sectors accounts for ~63% of headline CPI. We expect annual inflation to end 2015 at 1.7%/yr, and for calendar 2015 CPI to be +1.5%/yr."

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, with the break of the 0.7020 level, the pair is in a bullish phase having already reached the 38.2% retracement of the move down in an upside corrective near term. Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained, "The intraday Elliott wave counts are suggesting further strength to the 55 day ma at 0.7149. Above here we would allow for a return to 0.7220, the 78.6% retracement."
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