AUD/USD bulls taking charge, but...

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 4, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has been slightly offered in early Asia, but has since stabilized from a low of 0.7153. The NAB business confidence survey was generally positive, offering some support to the Aussie and the price reached a fresh high of 0.7191.

    Australia headed for a recession?

    There has been some conflicting outlooks for the Australian economy, but the RBA have started to turn less bullish and more vigilant on external factors. However, what about internally?

    The nation has not been in a recession for nearly 25 years, but according to Australian Bureau of Statistics, there was a surprisingly sharp contraction in third-quarter business investment and shows that the nation has fallen into a pattern of weak aggregate demand and excessive corporate savings that are not being reinvested in additional capacity or productivity enhancement. While that is a plus for the shareholder in buyback arrangements and received in dividends, it does not bode well for growth while the country desperately needs to shift out of mining into other sectors.

    Then, back to externally, the IMF said that global exports are the lowest since 1958 and with China potentially on the verge of cutting even less demand for industrial materials this year with a potential further currency devaluation, Australia will surely receive the brunt of that and the bulls should be cautious, vigilant and on the same side that the RBA have started to adopt.

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    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, AUD/USD holds near its daily highs, and in the 1 hour chart still, but Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet noted that the technical indicators are beginning to look exhausted in extreme overbought territory. "The pair broke above the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily slump at 0.7145, and as long as the price holds above it, the upside will remain favored."

    RSI (14) on the 4hr chart reads 71.50 suggesting indeed the price is overbought and a period of consolidation might be expected on a lack of further fundamental drivers. However, above the pivot of 0.7074, the pair remains in bullish territory and a break of R3 at 0.7198 opens space towards a full recovery of the 2016 downtrand at 0.7301 guarding December highs at 0.7385.
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