AUD/USD: downside back into play?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 2, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD lost its edge over night after the RBA statement informed markets and confirmed that the Central Bank was leaving the door wide open for further potential easing, despite the board judging that there "were reasonable prospects for continued growth."

    AUD: RBA signals dovish shift - Goldman Sachs

    The RBA left rates on hold at 2.00% but developments abroad are keeping the board from overly optimistic and they remain vigilant. The statement from the RBA indicated that the low level of inflation “may provide scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand”. We will now wait to see whether the Australian economy is able to weather the turmoil abroad, keeping an eye on iron ore, oil and commodity price sin general, the jobs sector, the value of the Aussie and of course inflation.

    The Aussie is a two pronged variable. On one hand, should conditions were to worsen abroad, this would weigh on the Aussie, but at the same time negatively impact the Australian economy and possibly force the hand of the RBA, while at the same time, the RBA needs to balance the performance of the Aussie vs the prices of commodities.

    AUD/USD levels

    AUD/USD upside target

    Technically, the 55-day ma at 0.7139 is fading over the horizon that has well and truly capping the recent rally. Should there be an upside surprise and a turn of events, beyond there lies the 0.7221 mark, being the 78.6% retracement.

    AUD/USD downside

    To the downside, the 20 dma is at 0.6989 and is the key target now that we have seen a break of the 0.71 handle and 0.7058, 28th Jan low. On a full reversal of the recent rally, 0.6774 is the 2004 low below 0.6920 that guards the 0.6828/29 recent lows.
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