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AUD/USD: downside capped by hourly 100-SMA

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 1, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The AUD/USD pair halted its four-day winning streak and turned in the negative territory this Monday as dismal China’s PMI reports as well as lower commodities’ prices continue to dent the sentiment.

    AUD/USD supported at hourly 100-SMA at 0.7044

    Currently, the AUD/USD pair trades -0.29% lower at 0.7067, quickly reversing a dip to session lows at 0.7044, where hourly 100-SMA intersects. The Aussie came under renewed selling pressure at the beginning of the RBA week, as the latest set of sluggish Chinese data revived China slowdown worries into markets. China is Australia’s top export destination.

    China’s official PMI gauge slid to a three-year low of 49.4 in January, from 49.7 a month earlier. While the Caixin PMI came in at 48.4 in January, against 48.2 in December, although remained deep in contraction.

    In addition, ongoing weakness in oil and industrial metals also hurts the resource-linked Aussie. Both crude benchmarks are down nearly 1.40%, while the copper prices drop -0.85% so far.

    Further, markets resorted to profit-taking after the recent strength, and ahead of Tuesday’s RBA cash rate announcement. While the week ahead, holds a lot for the AUD, in terms of significant fundamentals viz., retail sales, monetary policy statement, business confidence etc. While the US NFP report is expected to gain a lot of attention this week.

    AUD/USD Levels to watch

    The pair heads higher and finds the immediate resistance at 0.7095/0.7100 (daily R2/ round number) above which gains could be extended to the next hurdle located at 0.7129/59 (Jan 28 High/ 100-DMA). On the flip side, the immediate support located at 0.7044 (Daily low/ 1h 100-SMA). Selling pressure is likely to intensify below the last, dragging the Aussie to 0.7004/0.7000 (Jan 28 Low).
    For more information, read our latest forex news.

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