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AUD/USD: downside done yet?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 11, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is still in the hands of the bears in the main with little respite from the risk aversion throughout financial markets besides some consolidation in the price currently. China will continue to weigh on the Aussie and commodity prices.

    Eyes will remain on stocks, the Yuan and CNH/CNY spread and the performance of the Chinese stock markets and the PBoC and subsequent call to rescue actions. Oil is a huge factor also driving the price, making fresh lows in thee US session. Then, the Fed will be back to the table in the next weeks adding further fuel to the fire in respect to the performance of the US economy and timings of the the gradual pace of further tightening at the hands of the FOMC.

    The long-term bear trend is targeting the 0.6907 lows of 2015 with little in the way of a test of lower still and bringing in the higher end of the financial crisis ranges, with a break of the 0.69 handle and then introducing the 0.6774 2004 low. Fundamentally, in respect of data, we await the Chinese trade balance and the Aussie jobs numbers as the next diarised catalyst to look forward to.

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, late September lows remain compelling at 0.6940 ahead of the 0.6907 lows. Then we are looking towards the 2004 low as mentioned above. To the upside, 0.7000, then 0.7040 (100 1hr sma) and 0.7080 are first key resistances while bulls may struggle at 0.7090. 0.7120 thereafter and 0.7156 are next stops.
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