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AUD/USD downside favoured despite US data misses

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 29, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7082 with a high of 0.7120 and a low of 0.7069.

    AUD/USD has moved into consolidation after the downside opened up as the greenback comes back into vogue while the divergence between the Central Banks. The FOMC has left the door wide open for a December hike and while the markets are in anticipation of that, the bearish bias prevails.

    Full text October FOMC statement

    However, one of the key criteria for lift-off is for the FOMC feeling more confident about inflation reaching the 2% target and today doesn't amount to such an outcome in the near future with personal consumption expenditure prices Q/Q dropping to 1.2% vs 3,2% expected and 2.2% previous.

    We now await the Y/Y and M/M tomorrow while GDP today was also a miss for the US, Q3 annualized at 1.5% vs 1.6% expected and well below 3.9% previous. These misses coupled with the recent miss in Nonfarm Payrolls may be factors that the FOMC will consider as a reason to hold off until 2016, but at this stage, the market is not pricing in such a possibility and price action remains favourable in the greenback. Next month's NFP' will be critical.

    AUD/USD levels

    Analysts at UOB Group explained that the recent neutral outlook has shifted to bearish while they target 0.7050. "A move back above 0.7210 is enough to indicate to us that the current weakness is a ‘false break'."

    Meanwhile, the price remains capped by the 20 SMA on the 1hr sticks on minor recoveries within the bearish trend. The trend to the downside accelerated from the 200 SMA on the same time frames at 0.7214 today and while below here the bearish bias prevails. A phase of consolidation is taking place although there is room to drift with RSI (14) at 35.

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