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AUD/USD downside pressures in commodity sell-off

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 7, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD lost its steady form on the previously robust 0.73 handle in the wake of demand for the greenback, starting in late Asia and following through as markets prepare themselves for a Fed hike this month.

    Oil could be blamed for the commodity bloc sell-off as it takes on new lows for 2015 with WTI dropping to 37.8c bbl while USD/CAD rockets a cent higher. The knock-on effect on LNG exports will not be a good thing for Australia or the Aussie. Copper has also taken a hit from 2.0950 to 2.0430.

    Apart from that, the next fundamental in the immediate future will be China's trade, China's CPI's and finally Australia's jobs data later on in the week. Analysts at TD Securities see downside risks to CPI and are more optimistic on imports than exports. The unemployment rate in Australia is expected to come at 6.0% vs 5.9% previous while bullish markets will be looking for an improvement of the October employment change of 58.6k.

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, the 200 SMA on the hourly time frame stands at 0.7272 as a level of support that is under pressure at time of writing. Below here stands S1 at 0.7255 and S3 at 0.7219 as key levels. Classic S3 stands at 0.7176 where the 4hr 200 SMA gathers at 0.7180 having crossed below the 4hr 100 SMA at 0.7221. 0.7180 is the point at which the price rallied in late November trade to recent highs and should be a strong level of support.
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