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AUD/USD: downside targets 0.6774 2004 low

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD spent some short-lived time on the 0.769 handle a minor recovery of last week's sell off from a touch over the 0.870 psychological level to the lows of 0.6827.

    The antipodeans have been feeling the brunt of the dollar's upside and the collapse in oil and commodities in a poorly performing Chinese economy. Not even the strong jobs data report out of Australia was able to sustainably support the Aussie.

    Analysts at Rabobank noted that net AUD shorts increased last week and that Chinese growth and explained "the outlook for commodity prices remain principle drivers". There will be another opportunity for Aussie traders this week with Chinese retails sales, industrial production and GDP Q4.

    On GDP, analysts at TD Securities said that they share the consensus forecast of 6.9%, but with services and consumption underrepresented in the high-frequency space, we see modest upside, with a seven-handle quite possible if growth skeptics continue to think the Chinese economy is only about industrial production and housing.

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, AUD/USD has been in a downtrend since early September 2014 and the support of the consolidation channel from Sep 2015 to this month has just been compromised with a break of the 0.6905 September low.

    Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank is bearish and said, "Risks are on the downside longer term and we target the 0.6774 2004 low. Rallies will find resistance at 0.7000/50 and while capped here the market will remain offered. Above 0.7050, further resistance is offered by the 55 day ma at0 0.7164."
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