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AUD/USD: early support on big week

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 30, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is making a minor recovery vs the dominant downtrend and early loss of ground on stops as the market sucked up the disinflationary environment in Australia at the start of this week with the TD Securities inflation mean trim for Nov that came in below the RBA's target of between 2-3% at 1.6%y/y.

    With the commodities sector already dying a slow death, coupled with the CP that rose just 0.5 per cent in the September quarter 2015, following a rise of 0.7 per cent in the June quarter 2015, along with the recent capex disappointments, downside risks in the RBA next year may continue to weigh on the Aussie, especially should unemployment happen to increase to less desirable levels in the Australian economy.

    For now, the market is fixated on the FOMC this month with an RBA expected to remain on hold this week and the Nonfarm Payrolls will be taking the spotlight along with Lockhart, Yellen, and Williams all speaking ahead of the Fed's Beige Book, and ADP employment. Analysts at Nomura explained that the incoming data on labor markets in November point to a slower pace of job gains than the 271k total gain in October. "On balance, we forecast total NFP will gain 180k jobs in November, with the unemployment rate remaining at 5.0%."

    AUD/USD levels: 0.6907 target

    Technically, while the Aussie is starting to turn with conviction to the downside, analysts at UOB Group explained that only a break below 0.7170 would indicate that the bullish phase has ended. We are currently trading below the 100 DMA (0.7197) and the 200 SMA (0.7195) on the hourly sticks and continued closes below the psychological 0.72 handle bring the Spe lows at 0.6907 back into focus with 0.7015 and 0.6950 supports to break first.
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