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AUD/USD: headed for a bearish break-out? - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 17, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman noted that the US dollar turned in a mixed performance last week, which given the softer than expected inflation, retail sales data, and industrial output figures, coupled with the poor technical backdrop, could be a signal that its decline in recent months has run its course.

    Oil, Doha and the Aussie's bearish gap

    Key Quotes:

    "The dollar-bloc continued its advance, led by the Australian dollar's nearly 2% gain. Higher commodity prices (the sixth weekly advance for the CRB Index in the last eight week) may have helped. The persistent strength of the Australian and Canadian dollars has frustrated our attempt to pick a top. Both currencies made new multi-month highs.

    We continue to believe that both currencies are over-extended. The Australian dollar's technical condition appears stronger than that for the Canadian dollar. However, we note that the new highs have not been confirmed by the RSI or MACDs. This bearish divergence warns against chasing the market, even if one is not prepared to short them yet.

    The Australian dollar recorded its high on April 14 near $0.7740, It consolidated ahead of the weekend. A break of the $0.7600 area could signal the beginning of the topping process, but a break of the $0.7470 area is probably needed to be convincing."
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