AUD/USD lifted on oil's recovery but capped at pivot

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 20, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD had a last minute surge in the US session on the handover to early Asia and made a fresh high through the 100 sma on the hourly chart at 0.6895 to score 0.6925 before being capped.

    The dollar was sold off at the end of the US session vs the Yen and other major's that have otherwise and recently been sidelined such as the antipodeans and even sterling caught a bid.

    US CPI was a miss in Dec Y/Y at 0.7% vs 0.8% and analysts at ING don't expect another rate hike until at least June, US stocks were down, but managed to recover off the lows at the same time as march oil was recovering over $1.5bbl into the final trade offering a improved risk environment for Tokyo's open while yesterday it closed down -3.71% at 16,416.19.

    The Aussie might extend its recovery should we have another neutral fix in the Yuan as well and a better performance from Chinese stocks with the Shanghai closing down -1.37%. Meanwhile and domestically for Australia we will have the New Home Sales m/m for Nov as well as consumer inflation expectations.

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, AUD/USD risks remain to the downside over the medium, but the bulls are putting in a valiant effort, despite lacking conviction as the pivot has still not entirely given out at 0.6907 and the market losing momentum ahead of the 4hr's chart 50 sma at 0.6934.

    While remaining below here, the 0.6774 2004 low remains compelling, especially on a break below 0.6828 and the 2016 low. Daily RSI has room to go at 34 before we are in oversold territory.
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