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AUD/USD made fresh 2016 lows; can it recover?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 20, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is not offering more than a phase of consolidation, despite a pop on the upside post the US CPI misses for Dec.

    US CPI for December fell 0.1% mom vs a consensus 0.0% mom expectations. The Aussie has otherwise been in decline since the start of the year on the back of the Chinese crisis and its vulnerability to the uncertainty that 2016 brings to markets. Investors have been looking for safe havens, as evident in AUD/JPY, and the yield of the Aussie/carry trade has otherwise been abandoned. However, is that about to change?

    Much will depend on China and whether investors are confident enough that they are willing to take risks i the flight for yield on the otherwise idle capital. The Aussie can recovery in such appetite but much will depend on whether the Yuan can continue to stabilize and if the Chinese economy can avoid a hard landing in H1 so that the RBA can continue to simply monitor and watch whether the economy can meet growth expectations supported by dubiously strong Aussie jobs sector that is less reliant on the mining sector.

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, however, AUD/USD risks remain to the downside over the medium and longer term with the 4hr chart offering the 50 sma as a string level of resistance while the 0.6774 2004 low is still compelling on a break below 0.6828 and 2016 lows so far. Daily RSI has room to go at 34 before we are in oversold territory.
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