AUD/USD: minor recovery failing before 1hr 100 SMA

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 11, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD found a small bounce in a strong downtrend that bottomed at 0.6947. However, in the CFTC report, it showed that net AUD shorts dropped a little further last week, despite Chinese growth and currency risks that have been weighing on cash Aussie.

    The spot today is looking into the 100 SMA on the hourly chart at 0.7042 with a high of 0.7035 so far, but is looking short-lived and headed back towards the 20 sma on the same time frame at 0.6980 currently with spot a few pips above at time of writing. Oil in general is pressuring and printing new lows, stocks are a wobble and attempts in the S&P meets shorts at 1937 and now testing the 20 SMA on the 1hr at 1920 support.

    But fundamentals, in the main, stay with China that had a bit of a better start yesterday although still was down over 2% in the first 30 min of trade. The yuan was a healthier and more neutral fix and offered the Aussie some respite.

    Aussie Jobs data coming up

    This week is key on the domestic front for the Aussie with the jobs data coming out. "Approx 130k jobs have been added in the last 2 months, a phenomenal increase for an economy that is growing sub-trend. Our above-consensus forecast is not held with tremendous conviction, and employment growth at 3% is exceeding that suggested by job vacancy data. Should an outcome softer than our forecast materialise, it is unlikely to impact RBA thinking significantly," explained analyst at TD Securities.

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, late September lows remain compelling at 0.6940 before 0.6907 the low. 0.7000, then 0.7040 (100 1hr sma) and 0.7080 are first key resistances while bulls may struggle at 0.7090. 0.7120 thereafter and 0.7156 are next stops.
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