AUD/USD: remains in consolidation in wide range

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 11, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    AUD/USD 's recovery of the 2015 downtrend has stalled and was capped at the end of March's business on the 0.77 handle and recently made a fresh low of 0.7491. However, demand for the Aussie picked up at the end of last week as the greenback took a tumble and oil prices recovered back to $40 WTI at the end of the US Friday session last week.

    Commodities major role in the FX space

    Oil has opened higher at start the week off which should under pin a recovery in the Aussie, however, there have been weekend reports in the Australian press that a rate cut could be around the corner. The market is currently pricing in a 30% chance of a rate cut on May 3 when the RBA next meets.

    However, the demand still wasn't enough to pull the Aussie out of negative territory for the week within the broader consolidation between 0.7415 and 0.7722. Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that having closed the week near this last, the daily chart shows that the price remains above the 23.6% retracement of its latest bullish run, whilst the technical indicators hover within neutral territory, unable to set a clear directional bias.

    Week ahead in the G10's - Nomura

    For the week ahead, we start with China before U.S. data kicks in. Analysts at Nomura noted the Chinese data coming up in PPI and CPI's, "On China, PMIs and other high-frequency data suggest that growth momentum improved in March, resulting in stabilization in the non-financial sector in Q1. Our economists expect real GDP growth to slow to 6.6% y-o-y in Q1 from 6.8% in Q4 2015."

    AUD/USD levels

    Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that, "In the 4 hours chart, the price hovers around a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have turned south, but also stand within neutral territory. At this point, the pair needs to break below 0.7470, the low for these last three weeks, to confirm a new leg south towards the 0.7380 region, the 38.2% retracement of the same rally."
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