AUD/USD: risks mounted to further weakness

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 5, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD fell off a cliff this year so far and is likely to remain weak in light of fundamentals and the technical levels that it has now breached to the downside.

    Fundamentally, China weighs on the global economy's outlook and Australia could be one of the worst hit in the near term. The RBA's bullishness could be compromised and factual data, rather than hot air, starts to impact Australia in H1. This was always the RBA's fear and would not be a surprise to markets that will start to price in a rate cut from the RBA if things to do not improve shortly.

    This week is key in respect of US data to start the year off and mindsets of the FOMC. Can the Fed hike again this year and if so, how gradually? Nonfarm Payrolls is up at the end of the week. Also, analysts at Scotiabank explained that considerable data risk lies between now and the next RBA meeting on Feb 2nd (Feb 1st PM EST), specifically employment (Jan 14) and inflation (Jan 27). "AUD sentiment has also turned, with risk reversals suggesting a steady rise in demand for protection against AUD weakness".

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, the downside is to play for while price is continuing to fall away from the psychological 0.72 handle.0.7155 was taken out and now the 3-month uptrend at 0.7086 is well in sight. Next stops to watch for are 0.7017, November low, and the September low at 0.6940.
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