AUD/USD risks remain to the downside

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 20, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has been pressured lower in this session dropping back from 0.6920 resistance and breaking the 0.69 handle to the downside with a low of 0.6892 so far. The move extends the drift from overnight away from the highs of 0.6957.

    There has been a good minor recovery from business done down at 0.6838 to aforementioned highs while risk has started to seep through the cracks again in the absence of continued chaos, as if the dust of the opening Chinese crisis has started to settle. The Yuan has stabilized while today's PBoC fix stood at 6.5578 vs 6.5787 last close while a poor show on Wall Street has not been supportive in Asian stocks and futures, pressuring the Aussie. Today, CPI will be a main event in the US session and could be the catalyst for a break to the downside on a bullish outcome.

    "US housing starts and building permits (consensus: 1,200K for both measures) followed by US CPI, which is seen unchanged m-o-m headline and 0.8% y-o-y, though the core measure is expected to edge up to 2.1% y-o-y, perhaps the only flashing amber (not red) light we have anywhere in the OECD on the inflation front.

    Overlooked by the markets, no doubt, will be the real average weekly earnings series that now comes out with CPI: that was just 1.6% y-o-y in November despite headline CPI being so low, which is another strong argument why “one more rate cut will not do it”, "explained analysts at Rabobank.

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, AUD/USD risks are on the downside still over the medium and longer term with the 0.6774 2004 low remaining compelling on a break below 0.6834 and 2016 lows so far. Daily RSI has room to go at 34 and exposes risks to the downside as well.
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